Integrated Satellite Driven Machine Learning Framework for Precision Irrigation and Sustainable Cotton Production

Syeda Faiza Nasim, Muhammad Khurram

This study develops a satellite-based, machine-learning-based prediction algorithm to predict optimal irrigation scheduling for cotton cultivation within Rahim Yar Khan, Pakistan. The framework leverages multispectral satellite imagery (Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2), GIS-derived climatic, land surface data and real-time weather information obtained from a freely accessible weather API, eliminating the need for ground-based IoT sensors. The proposed algorithm integrates FAO-56 evapotranspiration principles and water stress indices to accurately forecast irrigation requirements across the four critical growth stages of cotton. Supervised learning algorithms, including Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Logistic Regression, were evaluated, with Random Forest indicating better predictive accuracy with a coefficient of determination (R2) exceeding 0.92 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of approximately 415 kg/ha, owed its capacity to handle complex, non-linear relations, and feature interactions. The model was trained on data collected during 2023 and 2024, and its predictions for 2025 were validated against observed irrigation requirements. The proposed model enabled an average 12–18% reduction in total water application between 2023 and 2025, optimizing water use deprived of compromising crop yield. By merging satellite imagery, GIS data, and weather API information, this approach provides a cost-effective, scalable solution that enables precise, stage-specific irrigation scheduling. Cloud masking was executed by applying the built-in QA bands with the Fmask algorithm to eliminate cloud and cloud-shadow pixels in satellite imagery statistics. Time series were generated by compositing monthly median values to ensure consistency across images. The novelty of our study primarily focuses on its end-to-end integration framework, its application within semi-arid agronomic conditions, and its empirical validation and accuracy calculation over direct association of multi-source statistics with FAO-guided irrigation scheduling to support sustainable cotton cultivation. The quantification of irrigation capacity, determining how much water to apply, is identified as a focus for future research.