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arxiveess.SY2026-07-03

An Efficient Non-Gaussian Chance Constraint Method for Stochastic Nonlinear Problems in Spaceflight

Ethan R. Burnett, Spencer Boone, Niccolo Michelotti

Standard chance-constrained spacecraft guidance typically relies on the assumption that uncertainties in vehicle states obey Gaussian statistics. In frontier applications such as the cislunar environment or deep space flybys, the dynamics can be particularly nonlinear, and time between measurements can be long, leading to the need to make decisions whose outcomes produce non-Gaussian distributions. This paper demonstrates a non-Gaussian confidence boundary technique for stochastic guidance in such applications. Our approach is to consider the true confidence contour as a perturbation of the one predicted from covariance, then to derive perturbed boundary geometry from computed higher-order statistical moments. Applying this technique to so-called "banana-shaped distributions", found in orbital mechanics problems, enables a simple parameterization of the confidence contour using the skew and kurtosis tensors. This parameterization is then applied to a stochastic and nonlinear impulsive spacecraft maneuver targeting problem, with special treatment of a relevant non-convex constraint.

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Motivated by stochastic model predictive control applications, we present a semi-algebraic approach to constraint tightening for chance-constrained systems with unbounded additive disturbances and saturated inputs. The saturated error dynamics are handled via their exact piecewis…

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arxiveess.SYmath.OC2026-07-17

Gaussian behaviors and stochastic data-driven control

András Sasfi, Alberto Padoan, Ivan Markovsky, Florian Dörfler

We propose a stochastic behavioral modeling framework, termed Gaussian behaviors, which augments a deterministic linear time-invariant (LTI) behavior with a Gaussian noise component. We show that this notion is a tractable subclass of stochastic behaviors and encompasses classica…

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