Short-Horizon Sparse Model Predictive Control for Precipitation Reduction Using Numerical Weather Prediction

Yuta Tanikawa, Yuga Tomita, Toshiyuki Ohtsuka

This study proposes a precipitation control framework integrating a realistic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with model predictive control (MPC). At each control instant in MPC, a finite-difference sensitivity matrix is constructed from the NWP model and used as a local linear model of how perturbations to the atmospheric state affect future precipitation. A sparse convex optimization problem is then solved to compute the control input, which is implemented as a perturbation to the atmospheric state. To reduce computational cost in sensitivity analysis, multiple grid points in the NWP model are treated collectively as a single block, and a uniform perturbation is applied to all points within each block. Moreover, a tailored convex optimization problem is introduced to effectively control the accumulated precipitation at the end of a weather event, using a prediction horizon much shorter than the entire event duration while promoting spatially sparse atmospheric perturbations. To evaluate the proposed MPC method, four control methods are compared: (i) initial-only open-loop optimal control (IO-OL), (ii) full-horizon open-loop optimal control (FH-OL), (iii) shrinking-horizon optimal control (SHOC) with a fixed terminal time, and (iv) single-move MPC with a fixed prediction-horizon length. Numerical experiments on a warm bubble benchmark demonstrate that MPC achieves precipitation reduction comparable to SHOC while reducing the total computational time relative to FH-OL and SHOC. Moreover, despite using a linear prediction model, MPC successfully achieves a challenging level of precipitation reduction, even when open-loop optimal control methods, namely, IO-OL and FH-OL, fail because of nonlinear atmospheric evolution. These findings suggest that MPC is a promising control framework for NWP-based precipitation reduction in complex weather events.