Application of Machine Learning to Predict CO2 Emissions in Light-Duty Vehicles

Jeffrey Udoh, Joan Lu, Qiang Xu

Climate change caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is an escalating global issue, with the transportation sector being a significant contributor, accounting for approximately a quarter of all energy-related GHG emissions. In the transportation sector, vehicle emissions testing is a key part of ensuring compliance with environmental regulations. The Vehicle Certification Agency (VCA) of the UK plays a pivotal role in certifying vehicles for compliance with emissions and safety standards. One of the primary methods employed by the VCA to measure vehicle emissions for light-duty vehicles is the Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). The WLTP is a global standard for testing vehicle emissions and fuel consumption, and sensors are crucial in ensuring accurate, real-time data collection in laboratories. Using the data collected by the VCA, regression machine learning models were trained to predict CO2 emissions in light-duty vehicles. Among six regression models tested, the Decision Tree Regression model achieved the highest accuracy, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 2.20 and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 1.69%. It was then deployed as a web application that provides users with accurate CO2 emission estimates for vehicles, enabling informed decisions to reduce GHG emissions. This research demonstrates the efficacy of machine learning and AI-driven approaches in fostering sustainability within the transportation sector.