Interpretable dynamic quantitative vascular morphometry features using SHAP for anti-angiogenic therapy response prediction

Kui Hu, Qian Cai, Jia Xu, Shuangquan Ai, Wuling Ou, Liu Y

Anti-angiogenic therapy benefits vary, with response rates of 40 to 70%, highlighting the need for early biomarkers to identify responders. We developed an automated machine learning framework that uses delta quantitative vascular morphometry features from standard contrast-enhanced CT to evaluate treatment response. This workflow combines automated tumor and vessel segmentation with feature extraction from routine scans for clinical use. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP)–based attributions identify key vascular and clinical features, providing meaningful, imaging-visible evidence aligned with therapy targets beyond traditional radiomics. Using baseline and follow-up CTs from 163 patients with lung cancer, we built three models using fivefold cross-validation, with the delta-merge model achieving high accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.842 internally, 0.806 externally). SHAP analysis uncovered an “arterial-dominant, venous-adaptive” pattern, where arterial involvement and venous recovery distinguish responders. This automated workflow and visualization support early, imaging-based response assessment and personalized treatment.